Re-imagining nat’l security in post-pandemic times

The first and foremost question haunting us is – will PLA take advantage and resort to more salami slicing? There are already reports of amassing of PLA formations across LAC, in Ladakh and other sensitive sectors. Most of it is normal because May is the period when campaigning season in the high altitude Himalayan region starts with a window of around six months. Adjustments on both sides are fairly normal and troops transit from winter to summer deployment, density increasing in forward areas.

It is difficult to hazard a guess on Chinese intentions, consequently, it will be in order that we keep our guard up and simultaneously prepare for more QPQ options, like pre-emptive occupation of dominating features on Kailash range. While jury is still out on withdrawal from Kailash heights, yet PLA would have registered three major takeaways. First, tactical resoluteness at Galwan. Second, operational finesse in occupation of Kailash range. Third, strategic resolve in executing QPQ coupled with belated re-balancing to Northern borders, resulting in re-orbitting of second mountain corps and other formations. For PLA, degree of difficulty on LAC is increasing.

Down the years, objective analysts will surely question the ill-advised Chinese foray, ending in a stalemate. More importantly, destroying social capital among millennials, likely to be key opinion makers, in the emerging, most populated nation.

Change from roving patrols from units in hinterland to stake territorial claims, to permanently stationed troops with attendant human and economic costs, is highly questionable and indicative of some nervousness. Sensible elements would have realised that Indians cannot be bullied into submission. Yet, danger may lurk in other domains, like cyber and even bio-weapons. Social media is already swamped with content, terming the current Covid crisis as biowarfare.

It will be appropriate for us to invest in internal consolidation and conflict resolution, drawing inspiration from Deng’s internal consolidation. Armed Forces can be trusted to deliver. The foremost requirement is to reprioritise the macro agenda from socio-theological distractions to economic consolidation. Recovery certainly cannot be skewed to favour a few and has to be more just in coverage. The focus has to be on inclusive skilling and public health.

There is a definite need to rebuild federal structures and re-discover the Vajpayee magic of easy camaraderie. Focus of internal conflict resolution should shift from security to socio-political and economic domains. In Forces, centralisation should yield to Theatre commands. Delegated authority with capability, clearly defined SOPs and certainty of response like Kailash are the most effective deterrents.

There is a crying need to consider pragmatic de-coupling of internal and external narratives. It is important to educate our public on strategic realities and not get stuck to “no loss of territory,” especially with competing claim lines.

Mistakes made in the pre-1962 period have to give way to pragmatic resolution of border claims. The hype in public domain on breaking our neighbours has to wind down. Agencies leveraging such fault lines deserve anonymity and deniability. It is time cognitive manipulators and IT cells take a break. Even our diplomats have to transit from lofty agendas and sermonising to shared deliverables in economic and security domains.

The nation has to jettison Permanently in Election Mode (PIEM) syndrome. PIEM translates to development “down-time,” unending acrimony and misplaced agenda of “opponent mukt Bharat,” even when governance suffers in “Covid yukt Bharat.” While it may be difficult to transit to “one nation-one election,” yet de-coupling can be partially achieved if Cabinet, which is full-time responsibility, is delinked from party work. We see ministers rushing to their native states frequently. Need is to build real pan-Indian leaders and certainly not rotate Defense Expos, conferences and locate DRDO hospitals on parochial regional considerations.

Post pandemic review, provided done objectively, should lead to rolling of a few compliant heads. Let their replacements fulfil Kabeer’s criteria of “Nindak niire rakhiye, aangan kuti chhawaye,” (keep critics in proximity). It equally applies to security management bodies and think tanks. It is high time to wind up Defense Planning Committee, currently in limbo, becoming increasingly redundant with CDS.

Last Word- It will be appropriate to recall American proverb, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. It is time to stop tinkering with Armed Forces eco-system, especially in posting of eminent medical professionals. The only thing that certainly needs fixing is delegation of postings of medical branch to CDS.